INSIGHTS Oracle’s Numbers

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Oracle will announce its Q1 revenue and profit numbers after the markets close on Wednesday. There’s more than a little excitement about what might be revealed, specifically if the company can continue its rise, thanks to its cloud products. The anticipated answer is yes, for a number of reasons, but there’s also potential for a surprise. First the surprise.

The company so far has been posting great numbers for its cloud products, including Software as a Service, Platform as a Service and Infrastructure as a Service, but it has been careful to note that the improvement was coming from net new business. That’s important because it’s less disturbing to the installed base, which has bought conventional licenses and pays maintenance — both important revenue streams.

As of last year’s OpenWorld, the installed base represented about 425,000 companies, including many of the world’s biggest and most demanding. It’s reasonable to figure that revenues will change as the base begins to migrate to the cloud, with Oracle capturing smaller incremental revenues from those customers in any…